If you’ve seen headlines lately saying home prices are flat, it sounds simple enough. But the truth is not that straightforward. In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.
What the Data Really Shows
While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they've changed is going to be different everywhere.
When you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metro areas, it becomes clear there is no single national story. About half of those metros are still seeing prices inch upward, while the other half are seeing small declines (see graph below).
So when the national media says prices are flat, what that really means is the highs and lows are balancing each other out. That’s not what most local markets are experiencing.
A big reason for this divide is inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University explains:
“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”
When you combine those two very different situations, the average may look flat, but that does not reflect what is happening in most communities.
Even in areas where prices have softened, that is often because values rose too quickly during the boom years. Nationally, home prices are still up around 50% over the past five years, and even more in some regions. That means most homeowners are still well ahead.
Experts are not expecting a national decline in prices moving forward.
What this means for Buyers
Local market conditions will influence everything, from how quickly you need to act to how much leverage you have once you make an offer.
- In areas where prices are still climbing, waiting could mean paying more later.
- In areas where prices are easing, you may have more room to negotiate for repairs or closing cost help.
Knowing your local market gives you a clear advantage when buying.
What this means for Sellers
Understanding what’s happening in your area helps you price your home correctly and know what to expect during the process.
- If prices in your market are still rising, you may not need to make many concessions.
- If prices are dipping slightly, setting a competitive price from the start and staying flexible will help you attract serious buyers.
Homes that are priced right for their market are still selling, often quickly.
The Real Story Is Local
National reports can provide helpful context, but the real story always comes down to what is happening in your local area. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:
“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”
That’s why it’s important to work with a local agent who knows your area well. They can tell you whether prices here are holding steady, moving up, or softening, and what that means for your next move.
Bottom Line
Headlines saying home prices are flat may grab attention, but they don’t show the full picture. If you want to understand what prices are really doing here on Maui, let’s connect and look at the latest local data together.
The information and opinions in this article are not investment advice. Tim Stice makes no guarantees about accuracy or completeness. Always do your own research and consult a professional before making financial decisions. Tim Stice is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this content.
