Expert Forecasts Point to Affordability Improving in 2026
If you’ve been watching the housing market and wondering whether 2026 will finally feel easier, you’re not alone. For the past few years, affordability has been the biggest roadblock for people who want to make a move. Many buyers and sellers have been waiting for signs that conditions were starting to improve.
The good news is they are.
Affordability made its strongest progress in three years during 2025. And according to housing experts, that progress is expected to continue into 2026. Their outlook is based on three major factors shaping the market right now: mortgage rates, available inventory, and home prices.
Mortgage Rates Have Settled Lower
Mortgage rates have already pulled back from their recent highs. Over the past year, rates dropped by close to a full percentage point. That may not sound dramatic at first, but even small shifts in rates can make a real difference in monthly payments and buying power.
So where do experts expect rates to land next?
So where do experts expect rates to land next?
Most forecasts suggest rates will remain fairly stable and hover in the low low 6% range throughout 2026 (see graph below):
Where rates go from here will depend on broader economic conditions, employment trends, and any changes in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. What matters most is that rates are already lower than they were a year ago, which creates better conditions for people planning a move this year.
- For buyers: Lower rates can reduce monthly payments and expand your purchasing power, making more homes realistic options.
- For sellers: Rates in the sixes may be the new normal. If you need to move, today’s conditions can still work, especially if you’ve built equity.
Inventory Is Continuing to improve
Housing supply made noticeable gains in 2025, with the number of homes for sale rising about about 15%. As inventory increased, buyers regained things that had been missing for years: choice, time, and negotiating room. That helped bring more balance back to the market.
Those inventory gains also played a role in slowing price growth, which directly supports affordability.
While the pace of growth is expected to be more moderate this year, experts at Realtor.com say supply should rise by another 8.9% in 2026.
- For buyers: More listings mean more options and greater leverage during negotiations.
- For sellers: Pricing your home accurately will matter more than ever to attract serious buyers.
Home Price Growth Is Cooling to a Healthier Pace
As more homes come on the market, the pressure pushing prices higher has eased. That trend showed up clearly over the past year. Even so, most experts still expect home prices to rise nationally in 2026, just at a slower and more sustainable pace (see graph below):
That outlook may come as a relief if you’ve seen headlines predicting dramatic price drops. The key thing to remember is that real estate is local. Some markets will outperform the national average, while others may see flat or slightly declining prices.
This is where local expertise matters most.
Nationally, though, steadier price growth is viewed as a positive shift for the overall market. As Realtor.com explains:
“For homebuyers and sellers, the shift signals a more balanced market—one where price growth steadies, rate relief offers breathing room, and negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers.”
- For buyers: Slower price growth means fewer surprises and easier budgeting.
- For sellers: A calmer pace helps maintain equity while restoring balance to the market.
More Homes Are Expected to Sell
Taken together, lower rates, rising inventory, and steadier price growth create a more favorable affordability picture for 2026. That’s why many experts expect more homes to sell this year (see graph below):
As Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, says:
“Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and improved affordability, while sellers are seeing price stability and more consistent demand. Each group should have a bit more breathing room in 2026.”
More people are finally finding a clearer path forward. The question is whether this is the year you take advantage of it.
Bottom Line
Affordability isn’t changing overnight. But several key trends are moving in the right direction, and together they point to steady improvement throughout 2026.
This year is shaping up to bring more balance, more predictability, and more breathing room than the market has offered in quite some time.
If you want a clearer picture of what these trends mean in our local market, let’s talk.
The information and opinions in this article are not investment advice. Tim Stice makes no guarantees about accuracy or completeness. Always do your own research and consult a professional before making financial decisions. Tim Stice is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this content.
Tim Stice, Broker Realtor | Hawaii Life | Maui, Hawaii | Real Estate Agent
