Picture two Wailea condos listed the same week. Both two bedrooms, both with an ocean view, both priced within a hundred thousand of each other. One can be rented nightly through 2031 and possibly well beyond. The other, if the buyer wanted the same income, would be operating illegally on day one. The median price per square foot cannot tell you which is which.
That gap between what a Wailea condo looks like on a portal and what it can legally do is the entire story of this market right now. Since December 2025, three events have redrawn the map: Bill 9 became law, Bill 88 created a rezoning path, and a federal appeals court reopened short-term use at one of Wailea's most prestigious oceanfront communities. Buyers who read the market through medians alone are working from an outdated framework.
The three Wailea markets hiding inside one median
Wailea's condo inventory now sits inside three distinct value equations. A quick reference:
| Zoning bucket | Representative complexes | Short-term rental status |
|---|---|---|
| Hotel or resort-zoned | Wailea Beach Villas, Ho'olei, Wailea Elua | Unaffected by Bill 9 |
| Apartment-zoned, Minatoya List | Wailea Ekahi, Wailea Ekolu, Grand Champions Villas, Palms at Wailea | Phase-out by January 1, 2031 unless rezoned |
| Residential-only | Wailea Fairway Villas, Wailea Palms, Kai Malu, Papali Wailea | Owner-occupied, second home, or long-term lease |
Wailea Point sits in a category of its own right now, and we'll come back to it.
As of June 5, 2026 there are 88 active Wailea condos for sale, with prices ranging from $750,000 for a one-bedroom unit at Grand Champions up to $14.99 million for a special unit at Wailea Beach Villas. A single median hides all of that. What matters is which bucket a specific unit falls into, because each bucket now discounts or amplifies future value differently.
The hotel-zoned tier: scarcity is the story
Bill 9 applies only to apartment-zoned vacation rentals. Condos in hotel-zoned or resort-zoned areas, like Wailea Beach Villas, are not affected. Ho'olei and Wailea Elua share that protection. For buyers underwriting a purchase partly on nightly rental income, these three complexes are the only Wailea addresses where the income projection carries no phase-out clock.
That scarcity is now priced in. Wailea and Mākena continue to lead Maui's luxury market, and in Q2 2026 luxury home sales maintained a median price of approximately $2.65 million. Hotel-zoned condo listings in Wailea have followed the same premium logic, with Elua top-floor units and Ho'olei townhomes trading in the $2.9 million to $3.3 million range through spring and summer 2026. What a buyer pays for here is regulatory certainty, and it has become one of the more expensive things you can buy in Wailea.
The Minatoya complexes and the 2031 clock
Wailea Ekahi, Wailea Ekolu, Grand Champions Villas, and Palms at Wailea are the classic vacation-rental workhorses of the resort. The first condominiums, Wailea Ekahi Village in 1978 and Wailea Ekolu Village in 1979, were designed from the ground up as resort units with pool pavilions, concierge services, access to the golf and tennis clubs, and ocean and golf course views. Not a lot of storage. Not a lot of parking. These units were vacation-oriented by design, approved as such by the County, marketed and sold to off-island investors, and then rented to visitors from day one.
They all now sit under Bill 9. Under Bill 9, apartment-zoned properties that have historically relied on legal nonconforming short-term rental use must phase out transient vacation rental operations by January 1, 2029, in West Maui and by January 1, 2030, in the rest of Maui County. A subsequent amendment moved the South Maui sunset to January 1, 2031, giving Wailea Minatoya owners roughly four and a half years of legal short-term operation from today.
The forward look is where the pricing pressure shows up. UHERO projects a 20 to 40 percent decline in condo values in zones where short-term rental use would be phased out. The exact number depends on the property's location, condition, HOA action, and how closely its value is tied to short-term rental income. That is the range currently being negotiated inside every Minatoya offer in Wailea.
There is a counterweight, and it was signed in June 2026. Following the adoption of Bill 9, Maui County approved Bill 88 in June 2026. Rather than reversing Bill 9, Bill 88 creates two new hotel zoning classifications: H-3 and H-4. These new zoning districts establish a process through which qualifying apartment-zoned properties may apply to be rezoned. Bill 88 does not automatically convert apartment-zoned vacation rental properties into hotel zoning. Instead, it creates a legal framework that allows individual condominium properties to seek hotel zoning through Maui County's established review process. Whether a particular project ultimately qualifies will depend on future County review, public hearings, community input, Planning Commission recommendations, and applicable zoning and land-use criteria. For owners of apartment-zoned vacation rental properties impacted by Bill 9, Bill 88 represents a potential opportunity, but not a guarantee.
The practical translation: at Ekahi, Ekolu, Grand Champions, and Palms at Wailea, the AOAO board's position on filing for H-3 or H-4 rezoning is now a material fact for any buyer. Two questions belong in the offer conversation:
- Has the AOAO commissioned legal review of Bill 88 eligibility?
- Is there a special assessment on the horizon to fund a rezoning application or Bill 9 litigation?
The Wailea Point reversal
Wailea Point spent four years as a residential-only community by choice, and then it wasn't. In 2022, approximately 70 percent of Wailea Point owners voted to amend the governing documents, increasing the community's minimum lease term from 30 days to 365 days. That amendment took the community off the list of prized vacation rentable Wailea condos. Fast forward to July 15, 2026, when the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled that the amendment was not validly adopted. Because the amendment restricted how owners could use their property, the Wailea Point Declaration required unanimous owner approval, not the approximately 70 percent approval it received. As a result, the original 30 day minimum lease policy has been reinstated.
That is a rare thing in Hawaii condo law: a policy reversal that expands owner flexibility rather than constraining it. It also carries a warning label. The Wailea Point Association still has a limited opportunity to pursue additional legal action, so this should be viewed as the current legal status rather than necessarily the final outcome. Any buyer writing an offer at Wailea Point between now and further appellate activity should confirm the operative leasing rule directly with the AOAO the week of the offer, not the month before.
Residential-only: the quietest bet
Wailea Fairway Villas, Wailea Palms, Kai Malu, and Papali Wailea are governed for owner-occupied and long-term use. They have never carried short-term rental income into their valuations, so they have very little to lose from Bill 9. What they gain instead is a specific buyer profile.
Without short-term rental income, most owners will sell instead of transition to long-term rental activity. Why? Because there are plenty of off-island buyers looking for second homes that don't come with the extra hassle of having to tolerate tourists wandering around the property. The impacted Wailea condo complexes are prime pied-à-terre setups that have more appeal, not less, when short-term rental uses are banned. If that thesis holds, the residential-only complexes are already living in the market the apartment-zoned complexes may be moving toward. That is a case for pricing stability, not fireworks.
Questions to answer before you write an offer
The 2026 Wailea buyer's due diligence list has grown. Before ratifying an offer on any Wailea condo, confirm in writing:
- The exact zoning designation of the parcel, hotel or resort-zoned versus A-1 or A-2 apartment-zoned.
- Whether the unit appears on the County's Short-Term Occupancy List (Minatoya List).
- The AOAO's current minimum lease term and any pending amendments.
- Whether the AOAO has adopted a position on Bill 88 H-3 or H-4 rezoning, and any related assessments.
- The trailing twelve months of rental income and how much of the seller's asking price is underwritten by that income stream.
A slower market rewards this kind of deliberate work. Maui's housing market showed improved activity in June 2026, with single-family home sales rising to 76 transactions while the median price held at $1,356,975. Condo sales also strengthened to 87 transactions as pricing continued to adjust, offering buyers improved value compared to recent years. Even so, buyers remain deliberate, with median days on market climbing to 149 days, the longest since June 2014. Time on market is not a bug for a careful buyer. It is negotiating room.
FAQ
Does Bill 9 make short-term rentals illegal in Wailea today? No. Apartment-zoned Wailea complexes on the Minatoya List continue to operate legally through the South Maui sunset on January 1, 2031. Hotel and resort-zoned complexes are not affected at all.
If I buy a Minatoya List condo now, can I count on income through 2030? Legally, yes, under Bill 9 as written. The additional variable is whether the AOAO pursues H-3 or H-4 rezoning under Bill 88, which could preserve short-term use beyond 2031 but is not guaranteed. Income projections beyond the sunset should be treated as scenarios, not baselines.
Is now a good time to buy in Wailea? It depends entirely on the bucket and the buyer's intent. Residential and hotel-zoned tiers offer regulatory certainty at a premium. Minatoya-tier complexes offer discount potential with real policy risk. There is no single answer at the median.
The Wailea market has always rewarded owners who understood the specific community they were buying into. Bill 9, Bill 88, and the Wailea Point ruling have only raised the price of getting that part wrong. If you'd like a property-by-property read on how a specific Wailea listing fits your goals, Tim Stice is available to walk through the zoning, the AOAO posture, and the income math with you. Let's connect.
